Decision-MakingPrompt.

Act as an experienced decision-analysis and business problem-solving advisor.

TASK:
Help me make a well-reasoned decision between the available options below.

Analyze the decision objectively using evidence, priorities, constraints, risks, trade-offs, uncertainty and short- and long-term consequences.

Do not simply choose the option that sounds most attractive.

DECISION:
[What decision needs to be made?]

WHY THIS DECISION MATTERS:
[Explain the situation and importance.]

OPTIONS:
[List the available options.]

OBJECTIVE:
[What outcome are you trying to achieve?]

DECISION DEADLINE:
[If applicable.]

DECISION MAKER:
[Individual / Manager / Team / Business owner / Other.]

STAKEHOLDERS:
[Who will be affected?]

AVAILABLE BUDGET:
[If relevant.]

TIME CONSTRAINTS:
[If relevant.]

RESOURCE CONSTRAINTS:
[People, equipment, technology, skills, etc.]

REQUIREMENTS:
[List any mandatory requirements.]

PREFERENCES:
[List important preferences.]

KNOWN COSTS:
[Provide costs for each option if available.]

EXPECTED BENEFITS:
[Provide known benefits.]

KNOWN RISKS:
[List known risks.]

AVAILABLE DATA / EVIDENCE:
[List supporting information.]

UNCERTAINTIES:
[List important unknowns.]

PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE:
[Relevant past experience.]

REVERSIBILITY:
[Can the decision easily be reversed?]

SPECIAL REQUIREMENTS:
[Any additional instructions.]

DECISION ANALYSIS REQUIREMENTS:

1. DEFINE THE DECISION
Rewrite the decision clearly.

State:

Decision required:
Primary objective:
Decision deadline:
Main constraint:
Desired outcome:

Do not change the user's objective.

2. VERIFY THE OPTIONS
List each available option.

For each provide:

Option:
Description:
Known advantages:
Known disadvantages:
Missing information:

Do not invent additional facts.

3. CHECK WHETHER AN IMPORTANT OPTION IS MISSING
Consider whether realistic alternatives exist such as:

- do nothing
- delay the decision
- run a pilot
- use a temporary solution
- combine two options
- negotiate
- outsource
- perform internally
- phase implementation

Only add alternatives that are realistically relevant.

Clearly label them:

"Additional option to consider."

4. DEFINE DECISION CRITERIA
Identify the factors that should determine the choice.

Possible criteria:

- cost
- expected benefit
- quality
- speed
- implementation time
- operational impact
- customer impact
- financial return
- risk
- reliability
- scalability
- flexibility
- resource requirement
- ease of implementation
- maintenance
- employee impact
- strategic fit
- compliance
- sustainability
- reversibility

Use only relevant criteria.

5. SEPARATE REQUIREMENTS FROM PREFERENCES
Classify criteria as:

MUST HAVE
Failure means the option should normally be rejected.

IMPORTANT
Strongly influences the decision.

PREFERENCE
Useful but not essential.

Do not allow a preference to outweigh a mandatory requirement.

6. IDENTIFY DEAL-BREAKERS
List any condition that would automatically make an option unacceptable.

Examples:

- exceeds maximum budget
- cannot meet mandatory deadline
- violates policy
- creates unacceptable safety risk
- cannot meet customer requirement
- requires unavailable capability

Only use deal-breakers supported by the user's constraints.

7. ASSIGN CRITERIA WEIGHTS
Where useful, assign relative importance.

Example:

Cost — 20%
Quality — 25%
Implementation time — 15%
Risk — 20%
Scalability — 10%
Flexibility — 10%

Total must equal 100%.

Explain why higher-weight criteria matter.

If the user's priorities are unclear, clearly state that the weights are provisional.

8. EVIDENCE QUALITY
For important information classify evidence as:

Strong
Moderate
Weak
Unknown

Distinguish:

Confirmed data
Estimate
Opinion
Assumption

Do not treat estimates as confirmed facts.

9. COMPARE COST
Where cost information exists analyze:

Initial cost
Recurring cost
Implementation cost
Maintenance cost
Training cost
Hidden / indirect cost
Switching cost
Opportunity cost

Do not invent cost values.

10. TOTAL COST PERSPECTIVE
Avoid comparing options only by purchase price.

Where relevant consider:

Total cost of ownership
Internal labor
Downtime
Maintenance
Support
Training
Replacement
Integration
Exit cost

11. BENEFIT ANALYSIS
For each option identify:

Direct benefits
Indirect benefits
Short-term benefits
Long-term benefits
Measurable benefits
Strategic benefits

Do not exaggerate benefits without evidence.

12. RISK ANALYSIS
For each option identify:

Risk:
Likelihood:
Impact:
Mitigation:
Residual concern:

Use:

Low
Medium
High
Critical

where appropriate.

13. UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS
Identify which unknowns could materially change the decision.

For each:

Unknown:
Why it matters:
How to verify:
Decision impact:

Focus research on high-impact uncertainty.

14. TRADE-OFF ANALYSIS
Explain what is gained and sacrificed with each option.

Examples:

Lower cost vs lower capability
Speed vs quality
Flexibility vs standardization
Short-term savings vs long-term cost
Control vs outsourcing
Customization vs simplicity

Make trade-offs explicit.

15. SHORT-TERM IMPACT
Evaluate approximately:

First 30 days
First 90 days

Where relevant.

Consider:

Implementation effort
Disruption
Learning curve
Immediate benefit
Cash impact

Do not invent specific results.

16. LONG-TERM IMPACT
Consider:

1 year+
Scalability
Maintenance
Strategic fit
Recurring cost
Future flexibility
Dependency
Technical debt
Process sustainability

17. REVERSIBILITY
Classify each option:

Highly reversible
Moderately reversible
Difficult to reverse
Effectively irreversible

Explain:

Cost of reversal
Time to reverse
Operational consequences

A difficult-to-reverse decision deserves stronger evidence before commitment.

18. OPTIONALITY
Consider whether an option preserves future choices.

An option may be valuable if it allows the organization to learn before committing more resources.

19. PILOT POSSIBILITY
If uncertainty is high, consider whether a small pilot can test assumptions.

Define:

Pilot:
Scope:
Cost / effort:
Question being tested:
Success criteria:
Decision after pilot:

Do not recommend a pilot when the decision is trivial or testing would add unnecessary delay.

20. DEPENDENCY ANALYSIS
Identify dependencies such as:

- supplier
- customer
- management approval
- technology
- employee skills
- infrastructure
- funding
- regulation
- another project

For each explain the decision risk.

21. IMPLEMENTATION COMPLEXITY
Rate:

Low
Medium
High

Consider:

People
Process
Technology
Training
Integration
Time
Change management

22. RESOURCE REQUIREMENT
For each option consider:

People:
Skills:
Time:
Budget:
Technology:
External support:

Flag resources that are currently unavailable.

23. STAKEHOLDER IMPACT
For each important stakeholder identify:

Stakeholder:
Positive impact:
Negative impact:
Likely concern:
Required communication:

24. CUSTOMER IMPACT
Where relevant analyze:

Service
Quality
Price
Delivery
Reliability
Experience
Disruption

25. OPERATIONAL IMPACT
Consider:

Workload
Process change
Capacity
Productivity
Quality
Downtime
Training
Control
Complexity

26. FINANCIAL IMPACT
Where sufficient data exists consider:

Cost
Savings
Revenue impact
Cash-flow impact
Payback
ROI

Do not calculate ROI or payback without sufficient numbers.

If data is missing, state what is required.

27. STRATEGIC FIT
Assess whether each option supports:

Business direction
Future growth
Customer strategy
Technology direction
Operational model
Long-term capability

28. OPPORTUNITY COST
Explain what choosing one option prevents or delays.

Examples:

Capital unavailable elsewhere
Staff time diverted
Alternative project delayed
Future flexibility reduced

29. WORST-CASE SCENARIO
For each serious option ask:

What could realistically go wrong?
How severe would it be?
Can it be controlled?
Can the decision be reversed?

Avoid unrealistic disaster scenarios.

30. BEST-CASE SCENARIO
Describe the realistic upside if the option performs well.

Do not use unrealistic optimistic assumptions.

31. MOST-LIKELY SCENARIO
Based on available evidence, describe the most reasonable expected outcome.

Clearly identify uncertainty.

32. DECISION MATRIX
Create a comparison table.

Columns:

Criterion
Weight
Option A
Option B
Option C
Notes

Use a consistent score such as:

1 — Very poor
2 — Poor
3 — Acceptable
4 — Good
5 — Strong

Only score criteria when enough information exists.

Mark unknown items:

"?"

33. WEIGHTED SCORE
Where sufficient information exists calculate:

Weighted Score = Criterion Score × Criterion Weight

Show the total for each option.

IMPORTANT:
The mathematical winner should not automatically become the recommendation.

Review deal-breakers, uncertainty and strategic factors separately.

34. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Identify whether small changes in assumptions could change the recommendation.

Ask:

If cost becomes more important, does the winner change?
If implementation speed becomes more important, does it change?
If the main benefit estimate is wrong, does it change?

Highlight fragile decisions.

35. BIAS CHECK
Check for common decision biases:

- confirmation bias
- sunk-cost fallacy
- status quo bias
- recency bias
- overconfidence
- anchoring
- loss aversion
- familiarity bias

Do not accuse the decision maker of bias.

Instead identify where bias could influence the choice.

36. SUNK COST CHECK
Do not recommend continuing an option solely because money or time has already been invested.

Focus on future cost and benefit.

37. ASSUMPTION TEST
List the most important assumptions behind the leading option.

For each:

Assumption:
Evidence:
Confidence:
What happens if wrong:
How to test:

38. RED-TEAM THE LEADING OPTION
Challenge the strongest option.

Ask:

Why might this fail?
What are we underestimating?
What would make another option better?
What evidence contradicts the recommendation?
What hidden dependency exists?

39. COMPARE DOING NOTHING
Where relevant include the consequences of maintaining the current situation.

Consider:

Cost of delay
Risk
Lost opportunity
Operational impact
Future difficulty

40. DECISION TIMING
Determine whether the decision should be:

Made now
Made after collecting specific information
Piloted first
Delayed

Do not recommend delay simply because uncertainty exists.

Balance the value of additional information against the cost of waiting.

41. VALUE OF MORE INFORMATION
Identify information worth obtaining before deciding.

Prioritize information that:

- could change the preferred option
- reduces major risk
- is reasonably easy to obtain

Avoid unnecessary research that will not affect the decision.

42. RECOMMENDATION
Provide:

Recommended option:
Confidence level:
Main reasons:
Main trade-off:
Main risk:
Critical assumption:
Required verification:
Why other options rank lower:

Confidence:

High
Medium
Low

43. CONDITIONAL RECOMMENDATION
Where appropriate use:

"Choose Option A if..."
"Choose Option B if..."

This is preferable when the best choice depends strongly on one unresolved condition.

44. IMPLEMENTATION CONSIDERATIONS
For the recommended option provide:

First action:
Owner role:
Dependencies:
Resources:
Main implementation risk:
Success measure:

45. EXIT / FALLBACK PLAN
For significant decisions define:

Trigger for reconsideration:
Fallback option:
Exit difficulty:
Loss limitation:

46. DECISION CHECKPOINT
Recommend when the decision should be reviewed.

Examples:

After pilot
After first month
After first milestone
After receiving missing data

Use the nature of the decision rather than arbitrary timing.

47. DECISION RECORD
Create a concise record:

Decision:
Date:
Options considered:
Criteria:
Key evidence:
Major assumptions:
Selected option:
Reason:
Known risks:
Review trigger:

If date is not supplied, leave it blank.

48. FINAL QUALITY CHECK
Before recommending an option verify:

- mandatory requirements are satisfied
- evidence is separated from assumptions
- important costs are included
- major risks are visible
- trade-offs are explicit
- uncertainty is acknowledged
- decision biases were considered
- recommendation follows the user's objective
- the option remains practical under stated constraints

OUTPUT FORMAT:

1. Decision Summary
2. Objective & Constraints
3. Options
4. Must-Haves & Deal-Breakers
5. Decision Criteria
6. Evidence & Information Gaps
7. Cost / Benefit Comparison
8. Risk Comparison
9. Trade-Off Analysis
10. Short vs Long-Term Impact
11. Reversibility & Optionality
12. Decision Matrix
13. Sensitivity Analysis
14. Bias & Assumption Check
15. Recommended Option
16. Why the Other Options Rank Lower
17. Information to Verify
18. Implementation Considerations
19. Fallback / Review Trigger
20. Decision Record

IMPORTANT:
- Do not invent facts, prices, benefits, probabilities or performance.
- Do not automatically recommend the cheapest option.
- Do not automatically recommend the highest-feature option.
- Distinguish mandatory requirements from preferences.
- Separate evidence, estimates and assumptions.
- Make important trade-offs visible.
- Consider both short-term and long-term consequences.
- Consider reversibility when uncertainty is high.
- Use weighted scoring only when enough information exists.
- Do not let a numerical score override a serious deal-breaker.
- Identify information that could genuinely change the decision.
- If evidence is insufficient, give a conditional recommendation rather than false certainty.